The United States and its allies thought that the regime change in Syria would be a slam dunk. They thought it would be like Libya. Using a no fly zone imposed by NATO, they thought they could bomb and kill or capture Assad and thereby end the war. Syria is pretty much now at the forefront of international policy.
The Prime Minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is going to Washington on May16th; the Secretary of State, John Kerry, was in Moscow; Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron met with Vladimir Putin, who this week will meet with President Barak Obama to see if President Obama will step up support to the rebels or not. The British and the French want to end the UN arms embargo, so they can directly supply the rebels.
However, since we live in a multi-polar world with multi-polar interests, China and Russia have interests in the region and have put pressure on the United Nations Security Council for a game change, a major blow to Turkey, the United States, Sunni Arab countries, and some of the European countries that have a new design for the greater Middle East projects. America cannot overtly arm the current Jihadists fighting on the ground in Syria. At the same time America is fighting the same ideology in Afghanistan and other countries. That is why the United States is changing its public rhetoric and paying lip service to its Russian counterpart, calling on all sides to partake in a peace conference.
In addition, the Americans and the Russians are pushing for a diplomatic solution to the Syrian crisis with the continued leadership of Assad or his associates. Many people have warned that if the international community did not deal with the Syrian crisis quickly, the war had the potential to spill over into other areas of the region, and this prediction has proven true. Turkey was shaken with the two explosions within ten-minute intervals in the Reyhanli district of the Hatay province last week. Two vehicles loaded with explosives went off, killing at least 46 people and injuring more than 140.
Gratefully, this time Turkey did not blame the Kurdish rebel group, the PKK. In the past, whatever happened, Turkey would blame the PKK Kurdish rebels for it, because whether the Kurdish rebels were involved or nor, Turkey would try to implicate them. Turkey is finger pointing at the Assad regime for the bombs that went off in Turkey. Ankara is trying to show the link between those who attacked in the Reyhanli bombing and the Syrian regime.
However, Turkey does not want to enter the war with Syria unilaterally but instead would like to internationalize the effort, eventually asking NATO to use its common defense mechanism. NATO has certainly committed to the common defense of Turkey and has already stationed the Patriot Missile System there, yet Turkey is still trying to persuade NATO to impose a no fly zone against the Syrian regime. It is also surprising that this week the Prime Minister of Turkey will visit the White House to try to persuade President Obama to impose a no fly zone over Syria to be controlled by the NATO forces. Therefore, we should not ignore the significant timing of this attack as it came before Prime Minister Erdogan visits the U.S.
Why would Syria bomb Turkey days before Erdogan’s meetings with President Obama? Is it that the Prime Minister wants to show off that the appeal that the United States must intervene in Syria to impose a no fly zone, because the longer the war continues in Syria, the worse it is for Turkey? Or is the Prime Minister trying to change the US- Russian intent to have an international conference in order to bring about a diplomatic resolution to deal with the Syrian crisis? Why at this point when the Assad regime is doing well on the ground would Turkey open another front especially as an ally of NATO? If Syria had wanted to do so, it would have attacked Israel when Israel bombed Syria. Syria knows that Turkey is trying to provoke it and to find excuses to blame Syria . Ironically, Reyhanli is a town mostly populated by Alawites, Assad’s sect.
For those who study the Middle East, this is the rule of the game in this part of the world, where politics are conducted with all available means, including violence and deception. However, the Syrian Information Minister al- Zoubi, stressed that the bombings, which rocked Reyhani in Turkey, are terrorist acts that are condemned by all moral and legal standards, offering condolences to the Turkish people. Yet, the Syrian government said that the Turkish government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to blame for the bombings in Reyhani, having turned the border areas with Syria into an international terrorist concentration and the farms and properties into centers and passages for terrorist groups.
We all know that it is no secret that the Turkish government has been facilitating the delivery of weapons, explosive devices, money, and groups into Syria. We do not know who really did this atrocity, but I doubt that the Syrian government did because Syria’s plate is full, so that it cannot open another front to fight its neighbor. Turkey has been doing this provocation for the past two years, hoping to internationalize the conflict and especially to get military support from the US. Turkey made a big mistake for itself through its support of insurgents in Syria, and now that his strategy has collapsed, Turkey is charging Syria with the use of chemical weapons against its civilians. Indeed, Carla Del Ponte from the United Nations actually said that the rebels are using the chemical sarin, a poison gas, against the civilians. So now that the poison gas excuse did not work, the bombing is happening.
Turkey also accused Syria of shooting down Turkish fighter jets, but analysts have proved that the Assad regime was not involved in that either. I do not think the Assad regime is stupid enough to have openly picked a fight with Turkey because Damascus knows Turkey is a member of NATO.
The longer the war in Syria continues, the worse it becomes for Turkey, so Prime Minister Erdogan is wanting to remove Assad as soon as possible. However, there is clash of national interests between Ankara, Washington, and the EU. If Assad stays in power, it would not be very good for Turkey, and, therefore, Turkey does not want Assad to continue his rule, but rather wants him to step down; however the West and its allies are keen to make a deal with him. I do not see much leverage for Turkey to remove Assad by itself but instead will ask help from NATO to impose the no fly zone. If Turkey deals by itself, this will get Turkey into a regional war.
I do not think the United States should become involved in the war in Syria because the United States did not learn its lesson from the war in Iraq. No matter what Americans do, the recipients of their generosity hate America, and America is the number one enemy, so they will always find reasons to hate the great infidel and the West.
Besides, America does not know what is going on there in Syria or the Middle East. War in the Middle East has been going on for more than three decades, and even for centuries there has been animosity between Turkey and Iran, so tensions among nations, including Syria, have gone on for decades. President Obama talked about the red line; that is the boundary that if the Syrian government used chemical weapons against its people, then America would have the right to intervene.
The fact that Turkey and other Sunni allies committed a crime against the Syrian people means that they have been passing the red line for a long time. The red line set by the Syrians is that they are a sovereign state and do not want their territorial integrity violated by external powers. American involvement in the war in Syria will help China and Russia because the Americans would be bogged down again in another crisis in the Middle East. Economically, America cannot afford it. Strategically, it would be beneficial for the United States to seek Russian and Chinese involvement to bring about a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian crisis.
None of nations want war without public support. All wars are based on lies. Let’s agree that the Assad regime is a rogue power getting away with murders and oppression, which could be true. However, Turkey is by far worse, Saudi Arabia is by far worse, Bahrain by far worse. That does not make it right, however. The principles for the rule of law only work when powerful nations need them for their interests. There is no civil war in Syria; the groups of jihadists and terrorists, backed by the West and Turkey, are invading Syria.
Dr. Aland Mizell is with the University of Mindanao School of Social Science, President of the MCI and a regular contributor to The Kurdistan Tribune, Kurdishaspect.com, Mindanao Times and Kurdish Media.You may email the author at:aland_mizell2@hotmail.com.
