The Future Trajectory of the Turkish- American Relationship

 

urlFor decades Turkey was a dutiful ally that mostly followed America’s lead, but the nations today does not much like its 20th. That is because Turkish President Erdogan and his government, led by the governing Islamic AKP, has asserted a more independent foreign policy in the Middle East, which often puts it at odds with the EU and in Washington. The crisis in the Turkish and U.S relationship goes much deeper than the issue of the cult leader Gulen’s alleged role in the recent coup and the demand for his extradition. Turkey and America sharply disagree over the strategy for how to bring peace in Syria and to stop ISIS. President Erdogan argues that the United States has allied with a Syrian Kurdish group known as the YPG or People’s Protection Units, which Turkey wrongly accuses of being a terrorist group. For its part Turkey has been shelling both Kurdish fighters of the popular protection units (YPG) and ISIS. The YPG is one of the most effective forces in the fight against ISIS. Turkey is wrongfully accusing the YPG of being an extension of the Kurdish Worker Party (PKK), a Kurdish rebel group that has been fighting for basic rights for more than four decades. The ceasefire between Turkey and the PKK ended last year and clashes have since claimed hundreds of lives on both sides. Turkey is fighting against the Kurds inside Turkey, as Syrian Kurds continue to try to have a self-declared autonomous region known as Rojava. There have been disagreements over the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, Turkey’s relations with Iran and, among other things. Critics of Turkey have questioned Turkey’s sincerity as a NATO ally including its refusal to fight against ISIS in the past.

The United States and the European Union officially consider the PKK as a terrorist organization, yet they do not label the YPG as such, but instead support the YPG militia.  The YPG fight against the dictator Assad’s regime trying to live free in their homeland. Turkey is attempting to urge the Syrian Kurds not to expand their territory. The biggest concern for Ankara is not ISIS, but rather the Syrian Kurds’ having autonomy and being free from the Assad regime. Washing and EU also argue that the AKP is becoming intolerant of domestic opponents and is promoting an ethno sectarian agenda in the Middle East, because of Turkey ‘s harsh response to Gulen ‘s religious cult that has established a government inside the government thereby weakening democratic institutions. If Turkey is successful in eliminating this religious cult, Turkey will remain more democratic than other countries in the Middle East with its free and fair elections.The US’s Middle East policy under the Obama administration has totally failed, because of Obama’s changed policy toward the Assad regime, his failure to go after Assad regime and create no fly zone inside the Syria , and his policy in the Gulf countries to pursue shorter-term goals, all of which have brought more instability and more distrust among the people in the region. Turkey‘s President in the past openly said that Turkey would not repeat the same mistake  it made in letting the Kurds have autonomy like the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq. That is why Turkey is covertly supporting ISIS against the Kurdish rebels. Turkey has grossly miscalculated by becoming involved in the Syrian war and by admitting that it will continue to shell the Syrian Kurds as long as it feels threatened by them. The Kurds in Syria, however, never targeted the Turkish people or Turkish territory; they want to be free from the Assad regime, and to reside freely in their homeland.  Indeed, they have every right to continue fighting for their freedom and to live free from Arab oppression. Turkey does not want Kurdish rebel forces across the Euphrates River, which it considers the red line.

When US Vice President Joe Biden visited Turkey last week, he expected a great welcome. Instead, when his plane touched down in Ankara, only the deputy mayor received him at the airport. The cool reception signals Turkey’s current stance regarding the US. President Erdogan acknowledged that Islamists’ cult leader and preacher Fethullah Gulen masterminded the failed coup attempt in Turkey by inciting his followers, killing more than 290 people, and injuring 1400 or more. Yet, the imam remains in Pennsylvania while his extradition has become a stand-alone issue for Erdogan.

Turkey insists that the American response will be a litmus test of intentions toward Turkey, whether or not Washington turns over the leader of one of the most dangerous religious cults on earth, The future trajectory of Turkish-American relations will depend on his extradition to Turkey or at minimum his expulsion from the USA.  The crisis of trust between Turkey and America can only deepen unless the Obama administration decides to extradite the cult leader to Turkey or somewhere else.  America’s national interest is in jeopardy by continuing to lose the trust of the Turkish public. How long can America operate out of Incirlik airbase as if nothing happened? Will America lose Turkey to Russia? Can America afford to lose access to the Black Sea and leave the theater completely to Russia? When Vice President Joe Biden visited Turkey, he knew that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, would be visiting his counterpart in Turkey to discuss military cooperation to fight ISIS. President Erdogan has even invited President Vladimir Putin to Turkey to watch a soccer match between the two national teams. The Turkish President will soon visit Iran and is considering having President Assad remain in power as president, a reversal of position. Formerly, the Turkish policy toward Assad was that he should go, but now Iran, Turkey, and Russia are unified against the Kurds making Erdogan’s policy tenuous. Obama‘s Syrian and Middle East policy is a disaster and has failed completely. In reality, Iran and Turkey hate each other because they each are competing for leadership in the Islamic world.  But they have a common enemy that unifies them and that is the Kurdish people. The reason Turkey and Iran have a convergence of interests today is that both do not want the Kurds to have power or to be strong. They wrongly believe that Kurds will be used by a foreign power as a staging post to interfere in the Middle East.

America needs a new leader who injects transparency into its regional strategies and who will stop Putin and Iran from running the show. Turkey is trying to have a new independent foreign policy in the region and peace with the regional countries, using the politics of oil and pipelines. These days give the impression that the Muslims world has no clear vision as to where it stands in the unfolding Middle East developments. Most of the Muslim countries seem as if they are unable to respond to development in the Middle East or around the world. Turkey is using the Sunni political Islam to maintain a regional balance and counter balance to Iran’s hegemonic power. For the US/West to have national interests in the new Middle East, they should realize the reality of a new Turkey, which has moved beyond the system of tutelage under the AKP party leadership to become in line with the vision of a new Turkey and a new Middle East.

Dr. Aland Mizell is President of the MCI and a regular contributor to Mindanao Times. You may email the author at:aland_mizell2@hotmail.com

 

 

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